cbbratings.com

Historical Accurracy

We've used the 46,277 games in our database, dating back to 2015, to compute the likelihood that a game would end with certain score margins based on the predicted score margin. Note that of these games, we only use the 29,464 games from January through March.

Select a margin of victory to see how teams have fared historically when the model would have predicted that margin:

There are 2,692 games in our database where the predicted margin of victory was 1.

The team won 53.42% and lost 46.58% of those games:

Lose By at least 20+2.90%
Lose By at least 16-196.58%
Lose By at least 13-1510.96%
Lose By at least 10-1217.35%
Lose By at least 8-922.99%
Lose By at least 725.82%
Lose By at least 629.20%
Lose By at least 532.88%
Lose By at least 436.33%
Lose By at least 340.27%
Lose By at least 243.83%
Lose By at least 146.58%
Win By at least 153.42%
Win By at least 250.30%
Win By at least 346.47%
Win By at least 442.57%
Win By at least 538.78%
Win By at least 635.07%
Win By at least 731.61%
Win By at least 8-927.75%
Win By at least 10-1220.25%
Win By at least 13-1513.74%
Win By at least 16-198.73%
Win By at least 20+4.57%

Win % by Predicted Margin of Victory

012345678-910-1213-1516-1920+Predicted Margin of Victory50%60%70%80%90%100%