Historical Accurracy

We've used the 46,277 games in our database, dating back to 2015, to compute the likelihood that a game would end with certain score margins based on the predicted score margin. Note that of these games, we only use the 29,464 games from January through March.

Select a margin of victory to see how teams have fared historically when the model would have predicted that margin:

Score Margin

There are 2,692 games in our database where the predicted margin of victory was 1.

The team won 53.42% and lost 46.58% of those games:

Result	Frequency
Lose By at least 20+	2.90%
Lose By at least 16-19	6.58%
Lose By at least 13-15	10.96%
Lose By at least 10-12	17.35%
Lose By at least 8-9	22.99%
Lose By at least 7	25.82%
Lose By at least 6	29.20%
Lose By at least 5	32.88%
Lose By at least 4	36.33%
Lose By at least 3	40.27%
Lose By at least 2	43.83%
Lose By at least 1	46.58%
Win By at least 1	53.42%
Win By at least 2	50.30%
Win By at least 3	46.47%
Win By at least 4	42.57%
Win By at least 5	38.78%
Win By at least 6	35.07%
Win By at least 7	31.61%
Win By at least 8-9	27.75%
Win By at least 10-12	20.25%
Win By at least 13-15	13.74%
Win By at least 16-19	8.73%
Win By at least 20+	4.57%

Historical Accurracy

Win % by Predicted Margin of Victory